Nanodiamonds (ND) hosting negatively charged nitrogen-vacancy (NV–) color centers have received attention for applications in magnetic field, electric field, chemical, and bio-sensing. The versatility of these probes is their excellent room-temperature optical and spin properties, along with their small size, functionalized surfaces and resistance to bleaching, making them ideal as nanoscopic sensors in picoliter volumes (e.g. single cells, but also microcompartments and aerosols). For quantitative ND-NV– sensing of paramagnetic analytes in such contexts, however, there remains an incomplete understanding of how factors related to the aqueous phase environment control detection efficiency. To address this, optically detected magnetic resonance (ODMR) is measured in bulk macroscale solutions and single levitated microdroplets as a function of Gd+3 concentration (340 nM to 1.5 mM), nanodiamond size, pH, competitor ions, and ligands. The ODMR response to [Gd+3] is found to be nonlinear, and pH, ND and sample volume dependent; indicating the detection of Gd+3 requires efficient adsorption of the analyte to the diamond surface. Langmuir adsorption isotherms embedded in a quantitative photophysical model links the ODMR response to adsorption thermodynamics of Gd+3. The equilibrium constant for Gd+3 adsorption to a carboxylated ND surface is determined to be (1 ± 0.5) x 105 M-1 corresponding to a free energy of adsorption of (-28 ± 1) kJ/mol. These results provide general insight into how complex aqueous and microscale environments impact nanodiamond based quantum sensing modalities, and portend their application as quantitative chemical sensors in microenvironments.