The automotive industry has readied itself for the likely mass adoption of electric and autonomous vehicles by the end of the decade, and most cars today are equipped with some advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) features that partly enable autonomous driving.
Research from internet of things (IoT) analyst firm Berg Insight has found that just more than two-thirds of all sold cars globally in 2024 fulfilled requirements for SAE Level 1 – the second, and most basic, of the six standard levels of automated driving – and that this is forecast to reach 90.4% by 2030.
The study, results of which are presented in its Global ADAS and autonomous car market research report, looked at how the market for autonomous cars will evolve in the next five years, covering the latest trends and developments, including detailed descriptions about major self-driving car projects worldwide.
At the outset, the report highlighted the six levels that SAE International defines for automated driving:
- Level 0 – vehicle offers no autonomy at all.
- Level 1 – vehicle has a single assistive feature, such as adaptive cruise control or lane keeping.
- Level 2 – vehicle can manage both steering and speed simultaneously under certain conditions, but the driver must stay attentive and ready to take over.
- Level 3 –vehicle handles all driving tasks in specific scenarios, letting the driver divert attention from the road.
- Level 4 – vehicle provides full autonomy, and the driver is not at any point expected to regain control of the vehicle as long as the vehicle is in the operational design domain.
- Level 5 – vehicle has complete autonomy, enabling it to drive anywhere, in any conditions, with no human input needed.
In addition to the strong growth in vehicles satisfying Level 1, the study also revealed that the percentage of new cars sold fulfilling Level 2 automated driving systems will grow from 28.1% in 2024 to 51.2% in 2030. The availability of vehicles equipped with Level 3 autonomous driving capabilities is additionally set to increase significantly in the coming years.
Berg Insight projects that 8.6% of all new cars, corresponding to 7.7 million vehicles, are expected to be sold with Level 3 capabilities in 2030 as additional manufacturers plan to launch Level 3 vehicles in the coming years. Berg Insight expects 2.6 million passenger cars to be sold with Level 4 capabilities in 2030, corresponding to an attach rate of 2.9%.
Looking at the forces shaping market dynamics, the report noted that the regulatory environment for ADAS and autonomous driving plays a major role in shaping the future of the industry, as the safety aspect is considered important by legal stakeholders. Berg Insight observed that historically, China and the US have generally exhibited a less stringent regulatory approach than Europe, especially in the early stages of development and testing.
“The regulatory environment is complex and rapidly evolving, with significant differences across regions as governments work to find the right balance between innovation and safety,” said report author and Berg Insight senior analyst Martin Cederqvist.
The report also suggested that sophisticated ADAS has become a major differentiator for automakers, pointing out that there are two ADAS offerings that comply with Level 3 SAE requirements today. In 2023, Mercedes-Benz launched Drive Pilot, which provides conditional automated driving at speeds up to 95kmh on select roads in the US. Since August 2024, BMW has also offered Level 3 autonomous driving through its BMW Personal Pilot L3 system, initially available on the new 7 Series in Germany.
Other manufacturers are following BMW and Mercedes-Benz in offering sophisticated ADAS. Tesla offers Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, Ford offers BlueCruise, General Motors offers Super Cruise and Audi offers Audi pre sense. Toyota, Nissan and Hyundai offer comprehensive safety suites that include adaptive cruise control, lane assist and emergency braking systems.
Yet the study stressed that Chinese manufacturers are gradually taking the lead when it comes to introducing sophisticated ADAS. Leading Chinese carmakers include BYD Auto, Changan, Chery, Geely, GWM, Leapmotor, Li Auto, NIO and SAIC.
Several companies today offer fully autonomous vehicle taxi services. Examples of leading robotaxi players include Waymo, Baidu (Apollo), Pony.AI, WeRide, DiDi Autonomous Driving, May Mobility, Avride, AutoX, MOIA and Zoox. Most of the robotaxi services can be found in China and the US.
Looking at the key firms leading the technology infrastructure, the report pointed to semiconductor solution providers such as Nvidia, Qualcomm, Mobileye, Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Technologies, Ambarella, Renesas Electronics and Texas Instruments, which are developing system-on-chips (SoCs) for automated driving.
“Suppliers of SoCs and related technologies are at the core of the progress in ADAS and autonomous driving, as these provide the high-performance computing and AI capabilities needed for autonomous cars,” said Cederqvist.