U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
July 8, 2025
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the Brent crude oil price to average less than $70 per barrel in 2025 and about $58 per barrel in 2026. In its July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA revised its 2025 oil price forecast slightly upward this month in response to unrest in the Middle East creating uncertainty in the oil market.
“The oil market is experiencing uncertainty from regional conflict, demand growth, and several other factors,” said EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley. “Our forecast for lower oil prices comes from basic economic fundamentals that when supply grows faster than demand, prices decrease.”
EIA expects lower oil prices to affect U.S. gasoline prices and domestic oil production, detailed in the highlights below.
| U.S. energy market indicators | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) | $81 | $69 | $58 |
| Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) | $3.30 | $3.10 | $3.00 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units) | $2.20 | $3.70 | $4.40 |
| U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day) | 12 | 15 | 16 |
| Shares of U.S. electricity generation | |||
| Natural gas | 42% | 40% | 40% |
| Coal | 16% | 17% | 15% |
| Renewables | 23% | 25% | 26% |
| Nuclear | 19% | 18% | 18% |
| U.S. GDP (percentage change) | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% |
| U.S. CO2 emissions (billion metric tons) | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2025 Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report. |
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- Global oil supply and prices: EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to average $69 per barrel this year, which is $3 per barrel higher than in last month’s forecast. EIA revised its forecast upward following higher near-term prices resulting from the geopolitical risks of the Israel-Iran conflict. EIA expects increasing global oil supply to continue pushing oil prices down in 2026, with the Brent price averaging $58 per barrel in the agency’s forecast.
- U.S. crude oil production:Declining oil prices have contributed to U.S. oil producers slowing their drilling and completion activity this year. As a result, EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to decline from an all-time high of 13.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025 to about 13.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. EIA expects U.S crude oil production to average about 13.4 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026.
- U.S. gasoline prices: Despite the revisions to EIA’s oil price forecasts, the agency still expects U.S. regular-grade gasoline prices to average about $3.10 per gallon in 2025 and $3.00 per gallon in 2026, down from $3.30 per gallon in 2024.
- Ethane production and exports: On July 2, the U.S. Commerce Department rescinded export license requirements that had effectively barred U.S. ethane exports to China. As a result, EIA changed the domestic ethane production and exports forecast in the June STEO to align with expectation for growing trade between U.S. ethane producers and petrochemical crackers in China.
- Natural gas storage and prices: U.S. natural gas storage was about 7% above the five-year average at the end of June, following a string of large storage injections from April to June. EIA now expects that as the United States enters the winter heating season, U.S. natural gas inventories will be about 5% higher than in last month’s forecast. EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to average about $3.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the third quarter of this year and $3.70 per MMBtu for the year, both significantly lower than the June forecast.
- Wholesale power prices: Although EIA revised down its natural gas price forecast, the agency still expects natural gas prices to be significantly higher than the historic lows of 2024. Because natural gas is the primary source of U.S. electricity generation, EIA expects natural gas prices to contribute to 12% higher wholesale electricity prices this summer compared with last summer.
- Renewable energy: EIA expects electricity generation from solar power will be about 34% higher this summer than last summer, then increase an additional 19% next summer. Solar surpasses wind as the leading source of renewables generation next summer in EIA’s forecast.
- Trade policy assumptions: The U.S. macroeconomic outlook EIA uses in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is based on S&P Global’s macroeconomic model. S&P Global’s most recent model reflects the tariffs announced in April and includes the 90-day temporary suspension of tariffs granted to certain countries. S&P Global Markit Intelligence projects reduced tariffs on imports from China compared with last month, but EIA expects tariffs on imports from other countries to remain at 10% after the 90-day pause expires in July.
The full July 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.
The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.
EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, STEO@eia.gov
EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, EIAMedia@eia.gov